Late word this evening is that McCain and Obama both stormed out of the White House with no deal to the financial crisis in site. Some rumors are out that McCain is going to back the alternative House GOP bailout. The alternative plan call for more private sector involvement in the bailout, including buyouts of the mortgage-back securities, and federal insurance on the mortgages.
This plan strikes me as infinitely better. Insurance on the mortgages for the companies buying them up will cost pennies on the dollar compared to a $700 billion bailout. The main downside is that there’s no return on the insurance.
The main advantage to the Paulson Plan is that we put up a loan, and since the mortgages should eventually go back up, we wouldn’t be out that much money - and could make a profit. Still there is no guarantee of that since home prices are still falling. That’s the one part of Paulson’s plan that makes it too risky - no one knows where the bottom is. Remember, Paulson’s plan is designed not to save the mortgages, but to save the securities behind them. Even once that’s done, the mortgages themselves could still go down.
Insurance will probably cost us $35 billion instead. We’ll be out the money, but with no deeper loss. The private sector will buy the bad paper, and the US will insure them against the inevitable foreclosures.
Either way, the banks in trouble get to sell their assets and get back to a more stable state. But the alternative plan costs $116 per person in the US, not $2333. It looks like my own congressman is (for now) backing the alternative plan as well. Go, Sam, go!
This should also be a wakeup call to our own government. You can’t hold off paying your loans back forever.